The IMF also stated that "the only major economy that is expected to achieve positive growth in 2020 is China." This judgment has aroused great concern at home and abroad about the economic trend of China.
Many analysts pointed out that in the face of the sudden new coronary pneumonia epidemic, mainland China has laid a solid foundation for resuming production and economic recovery with an effective response. At the same time, a series of targeted "six stability" and "six guarantees" and policy measures related to deepening reforms and expanding opening up is also providing strong support for China economic recovery. Therefore, whether in the short or long term, China economy is worth looking forward to.
Important indicators frequently show a positive signal
Why can the China economy give people confidence again? Positive changes in many important data are evidence. For example, in May, the total profits of industrial enterprises in China reached RMB 582.34 billion, which was a decline of 4.3% year-on-year in April and a growth of 6.0%. In another example, the total electricity consumption of the whole society in May was 592.6 billion kWh, an increase of 4.6%, and Power generation in China is growing at a faster rate. In early June, China’s full-caliber power generation grew by about 9.1%; in June, for example, the manufacturing PMI was 50.9%, and both supply and demand continued to pick up. Non-manufacturing business activities The index is 54.4%, which has rebounded for four consecutive months.
The Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council of China pointed out that recent important indicators of China’s economic indicators have frequently shown positive signals, which fully reflects the great results achieved by China in the overall promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development.
On the one hand, China has a very large-scale market, abundant human resources, and strong factor guarantee conditions; on the other hand, the new crown pneumonia epidemic is the most important factor affecting the economic and social functioning. In the face of the epidemic, China has taken timely and decisive action. Prevention and control measures, scientific prevention and control of an epidemic situation, orderly resumption of production and production, and at the same time strengthened the "six stability" and "six guarantees" measures in production, distribution, exchange, consumption, and other fields, thus laying a foundation for economic recovery in the first half of the year basis. ". Economists at the Institute of World Economics and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences predicted that although the indicators are not high, China will still be the fastest-growing country among the major economies this year, and East Asia and the Asia-Pacific region will also be the fastest-growing economies in the world Region.
Steady policies are expected to continue to improve
Since the beginning of this year, a series of effective policies have brought about a significant positive impact on China economy. In terms of targeted poverty alleviation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the Poverty Alleviation Office of the State Council issued relevant measures to further expand the target of micro-credit support for poverty alleviation and extend the repayment period of the micro-credit relief loan affected by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic.
In terms of supporting foreign trade enterprises, the General Office of the State Council of the China issued the "Implementation Opinions on Supporting the Transfer of Exported Products to Domestic Sales", and helped foreign trade enterprises better penetrate the domestic market through ten specific measures. In terms of financial support, this year the central government of China, through the addition of two "1 trillion yuan" in deficits and special government bonds, supports local governments in implementing measures to help small and medium-sized enterprises, self-employed industrial and commercial households and people in need, which are most affected by the epidemic. Health and other infrastructure construction and expenditures related to anti-epidemic.
Economists at CITIC Securities believe that real estate investment and infrastructure investment will take the lead in the second quarter, and consumption will also be more obvious from the third quarter, and it is expected to achieve positive growth throughout the year. Therefore, under the strategy of expanding domestic demand, the promotion of economic growth will be coordinated by consumption and investment.
"On the investment side, under the force of counter-cyclical policies, the monthly infrastructure has turned positive year-on-year, and the construction of new infrastructure has also been steadily advancing; on the consumer side, retail sales of enterprises above designated size have been significantly restored to close to the growth rate of the same period last year, and online retailing continues to be high growth. Looking forward to the second half of the year, we expect personal consumption, government investment, and corporate investment to continue to rise in the context of fiscal easing and credit expansion," said Yang Ling, general manager of Xingshi Investment.
Active transformation and development of higher quality
The "second half" of China economy is worth looking forward to, not only in economic data but also in the conversion of growth momentum and the improvement of development quality. "The digital economy is fully accelerating, smart and technological products are growing rapidly, remote offices, online education, online consultation and other rapid expansion, new models such as unmanned retailing and live broadcasts are constantly emerging, which will effectively support economic development." Finance The dean of the institute believes that in the medium and long term, the China economy needs to release the vitality of production factors such as land, labor, capital, technology, and big data. "I believe that if this round of market-oriented reform of production factors is effectively implemented and truly implemented, it will be a great boost to the potential for medium- and long-term economic growth in China. China will also take the lead out of recession among the major global economies, Take the lead in offsetting the impact of the epidemic."
In the short term, the task of the “second half” of China economy lies in properly responding to the impact of the epidemic, effectively boosting effective demand, avoiding the dilemma of “supply oversupply”, and helping various economic entities return to their normal state to the greatest extent. It requires all parties to accelerate the improvement of the socialist market economic system in the new era, deepen the supply-side structural reforms, and solidly boost key items such as infrastructure construction investment and residents’ consumption. Zhang Liqun said that as long as the "combination of quality and quality is achieved", it will surely inject strong momentum into the "second half" of the China economy.